Five insights guiding retail decisions in 2026

If you look at where retail is heading, it’s clear that incremental improvements will no longer be enough. Competition isn’t easing up, margins are tight and customers expect more across price, convenience and experience all at once. Delivering on all three has become a leadership prerogative, not just an operational one.

In my conversations with retailers at the recently concluded NRF, this reality was reinforced.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and agentic commerce are speeding up how customers discover, decide and purchase, while also changing how planning, fulfillment and cost structures work internally. The question executives are now asking is how to apply these capabilities without undermining financial discipline or customer trust. The year ahead will belong to leaders who can align consumer expectations with what their organizations can reliably deliver at scale.

Looking ahead: two perspectives shaping retail over the next three years

The trends emerging over the next one to three years become clearer when viewed through two distinct but connected lenses. On one side is the consumer who wants things easier, faster and more relevant. On the other is the retailer, whose focus is empowering people, strengthening operations and responding to disruption without sacrificing margins.

The customer perspective

1. Frictionless is becoming the baseline.

Consumers are no longer impressed by isolated improvements. They expect the entire shopping journey to work smoothly, from discovery to delivery. This means knowing what’s available, when it will arrive and having the same experience whether they’re online or standing in a store.

We’re seeing retailers investing much more in connecting supply chain data directly to customer experience. The distinction between online and physical is fading fast. Stores are becoming places for inspiration and advice. This only works when employees are empowered with the right information.

Data-driven retail, powered by AI, plays a growing role here, particularly in making information more accessible and relevant. Better product information, real-time availability and more relevant loyalty offers are quickly becoming table stakes. In some cases, we’re already seeing AI-driven engagement approaches (such as gamification) deliver real, measurable returns.

2. Agentic commerce will reshape how customers decide, not just how they buy.

As these experiences come together, the way customers actually make decisions is changing too. Agentic commerce is starting to handle search, comparison and recommendations, and in some cases even executing the transaction.

From the customer’s point of view, the value is obvious. AI can narrow choices, surface better options and handle routine steps. Instead of managing every click, customers are increasingly just reviewing and approving decisions, with payment and shipping handled automatically.

At the same time, conversations consistently returned to the importance of keeping humans in the loop. While automation improves efficiency, trust still depends on transparency and control. Automation works when people understand why a decision is being made and know they can step in when it matters.

The retailer perspective

3. Empowered employees turn stores into a competitive advantage

For retailers, employee empowerment is one of the most immediate opportunities. When store teams have mobile access to product data, inventory and customer preferences, the quality of interactions can improve significantly.

Information access turns associates into advisors. They can recommend alternatives, guide choices and close sales on the floor. With better data, recommendations become more precise, which directly translates into higher conversion rates and larger baskets.

4. Smarter supply chains protect margins while improving service

Supply chain optimization remains a top priority, but the conversation has shifted. It’s no longer just about speed. Retailers are using better data to understand cost to serve, where inventory sits and what different fulfillment choices mean for service and sustainability.

This insight enables more deliberate trade-offs. We’re seeing retailers introduce slower, lower-cost delivery options to reduce carbon and protect margins. In online grocery, especially, profitability depends on disciplined assortment and delivery choices.

Digital Product Passports are part of that shift as well. Item-level transparency on sourcing, materials, and emissions improves compliance but, more importantly, gives retailers much better operational control.

5. Disruption is constant, but discipline will determine long-term advantage

At the same time, technology is making it easier for new players to enter the market. Emerging brands, including those built around global influencers, can move quickly, sense demand earlier, and leverage AI-driven models to reach consumers directly.

For established retailers, this reinforces a familiar reality. Margins will remain thin, and differentiation will require constant focus. The challenge is not avoiding disruption but responding to it thoughtfully by balancing investments in technology and customer experience with financial discipline.

Retailers that win align ambition with execution

As we look toward the year ahead, the retailers making the most progress are those viewing decisions through both lenses simultaneously. Customer experience and operational efficiency are increasingly interdependent, and lasting value will emerge when they are considered together rather than in isolation.

The challenge for leadership is deciding where that balance should sit for your organization and whether today’s priorities reflect both rising customer expectations and long-term profitability.

I welcome a conversation about how these themes are shaping retail strategies and what they may mean for your organization.